Part A
Purpose
The purpose of this blogpost is to gain a greater understanding of population dynamics and growth, and to analyze how much population effects other aspects of countries.

Figure 1 - Population Overload
General Population Overview
As Molles (2010) states, “We look at population growth growth in the presence of abundant resources, growth where resources are limiting, and how the environment can act to change birth and death rates..The concepts we review reflect the historical development of population ecology. That history has involved two complementary approaches. One approach uses mathematics to model population growth. The second approach focuses on studies of laboratory and natural population.” Both the approaches Molles lists are utilized in this assignment, as it uses mathematics to analyze population growth, and it uses studies to analyze populations.
Questions
1. China and India have the largest populations in the world. Which of these two countries adds more people to its population annually?
These answers were found by multiplying the rate of natural increase (crude birth rate minus crude rate divided by ten) to the given population for each country in 2010.
Table 1 – Annual Population Growth for China and India
| Country | Number of people added annually |
| China | 669,000,000 |
| India | 1,783,500,000 |
2. What proportion of the world’s people live the following continents/regions and what are the projected proportions by 2025 and 2050?
For Asia, you do the population proportion differently for the three different years to account for the change in world population, and Asia’s population. For 2010, you do 4157 million (Asia’s population) divided by the world population, 6892 million and move the decimal place two spots to the right. For 2025, you do 4845 million (Asia’s predicted population) divided by the predicted world population, 8108 million and move the decimal place two spots to the right. For 2050, you do 5424 million (Asia’s predicted population) divided by the predicted world population, 9485 million and move the decimal place two spots to the right. For North America you do the population proportion differently for the three different years to account for the change in world population, and North Americas population. For 2010, you do 344 million (NA’s population) divided by the world population, 6892 million and move the decimal place two spots to the right. For 2025, you do 391 million (NA’s predicted population) divided by the predicted world population, 8108 million and move the decimal place two spots to the right. For 2050, you do 471 million (NA’s predicted population) divided by the predicted world population, 9485 million and move the decimal place two spots to the right. For Latin America, you do the population proportion differently for the three different years to account for the change in world population, and Latin America’s population. For 2010, you do 585 million (LA’s population) divided by the world population, 6892 million and move the decimal place two spots to the right. For 2025, you do 698 million (LA’s predicted population) divided by the predicted world population, 8108 million and move the decimal place two spots to the right. For 2050, you do 729 million (LA’s predicted population) divided by the predicted world population, 9485 million and move the decimal place two spots to the right. For Europe, you do the population proportion differently for the three different years to account for the change in world population, and Europe’s population. For 2010, you do 739 million (Europe’s population) divided by the world population, 6892 million and move the decimal place two spots to the right. For 2025, you do 747 million (Europe’s predicted population) divided by the predicted world population, 8108 million and move the decimal place two spots to the right. For 2050, you do 720 million (Europe’s predicted population) divided by the predicted world population, 9485 million and move the decimal place two spots to the right. For Oceania, you do the population proportion differently for the three different years to account for the change in world population, and Oceania’s population. For 2010, you do 37 million (Oceania’s population) divided by the world population, 6892 million and move the decimal place two spots to the right. For 2025, you do 45 million (Oceania’s predicted population) divided by the predicted world population, 8108 million and move the decimal place two spots to the right. For 2050, you do 58 million (Oceania’s predicted population) divided by the predicted world population, 9485 million and move the decimal place two spots to the right.
Table 2- Populations Proportions for 2010, 2025, 2050
| Continent | % living today | % by 2025 | % by 2050 |
| Asia | 60.32 | 59.76 | 57.19 |
| North America | 4.99 | 4.82 | 5 |
| Latin America | 8.38 | 8.24 | 7.69 |
| Europe | 10.58 | 9.21 | 7.59 |
| Oceania | 0.54 | 0.56 | 0.61 |
The trends reflected in the bar chart are the decline in population in Asia, Latin America and Europe and an increase in population in North America and Oceania.
3. What proportion of the world’s people live in less developed countries (LDCs) and in more developed countries (MDCs) today? What proportion is projected to live in LDCs and MDCs in 2025 and in 2050?
To calculate these numbers, you check the chart under the world population first. Then, for the MCD, you divide the more developed countries by the world population. For the LCD, you divide the less developed countries by the world population to find the percents.
Table 3- MDC & LDC Population Proportions
| Countries | % of world’s population today | % of world’s population in 2025 | % of world’s population in 2050 |
| LDCs | 82.06 | 84.1 | 86.02 |
| MDCs | 17.94 | 15.9 | 13.98 |
The economic implications of the changing of the changing proportions are not too large; the percentages only increase or decrease by about 2% every 15 to 25 years. This will not make that much of a difference in terms of these countries economies, except in terms of the labor force, which will probably grow or decrease. However, it is not a very large increase or decrease in the amount of people.
The social implications of the changing proportions of the world’s people are much larger than the economic ones. In the LDCs, there will be a higher rate of starvation and poverty and overall social crisis. There will probably be much social tension. In the MDCs, where the population is projected to decrease, there will probably be less effects.
4. Examine the crude birth rate, crude death rate, and rate of natural increase of any three countries (one being your own country) listed on the World Population Data Sheet.
To get these numbers, you check the given numbers for Crude Birth Rate, Crude Death Rate, Rate of Natural Increase in the World Population Chart.
Table 4- Rate of Natural Increase for USA, Canada, Botswana
| Country | Crude birth rate (%) | Crude death rate (%) | Rate of natural increase (%) |
| USA | 14 | 8 | 0.6 |
| Canada | 11 | 7 | 0.4 |
| Botswana | 30 | 11 | 1.9 |
The mathematical relationship among is that the crude birth rate and crude death rate allow one to calculate the rate of natural increase. The formula for the rate of natural increase is: (crude birth rate – crude death rate) / 10. Thus, to find the rate of natural increase for the USA, you do 14 – 8, and divide by 10, getting 0.6%. To find the rate of natural increase for Canada, you do 11 – 7 and divide by 10, getting 0.4%. To find the rate of natural increase for Botswana, you do 30 – 11 and divide by 10, getting 1.9%.
5. Select 2 LDCs and 2 MDCs from the data sheet and compute the age-dependency ratios for each.
To calculate these numbers, you check the world population chart which gives the percent population ages <15 and 65+. The two percents for <15 and 65+ are then added, and then that percent is subtracted from 100 and made the denominator of the fraction. The numerator is then divided by the denominator and multiplied by 100, which is the the age-dependency ratio. For example, Dijbouti has a percent of population ages <15 of 37% and 65+ of 3%. These two are then added to get 40%, then subtracted by 100 to get 60. 40/60 = .66666666666666666, which is then multiplied by 100 to get 66.7%.
Table 5- Age-Dependency Ratios
| Country | Age-dependency ratio |
| LCD1 Dijbouti | 37%+3%/60% x 100 = 66.7 |
| LCD2 Gambia | 43%+3%/54% x 100 = 85 |
| MDC1 USA | 20%+13%/67% x 100 = 49 |
| MCD2 Luxembourg | 18%+14%/68% x 100 = 47 |
It is clear that LCDs have a much higher age-dependency ratios then MCDs, as Dijbouti and Gambia have age-dependency ratios of 66.7 and 85, while the USA and Luxembourg have 49 and 47. This highlights the strict differences in most developed countries and least developed countries.
I think that the factors that contribute to a high age-dependency ratio are: a large amount of child births at one time, a high percentage of lay-offs at one time, or a lack education.
The economic and social consequences of a high age-dependency ratio are economic problems, such as higher taxes and people having to spend less money, and even greater social barriers between youth and the elderly.
Part B
Interpreting & Understanding Age-Sex Graphs
1. From the following table select one country from each column (two countries) from for your case.
Column A: France. Column B: Bangladesh.
2. From the Excel file record the following data for the country you selected.
Table 6- Bangladesh’s Demographic Indicators
| Demographic Indicators | Value |
| Total midyear population | 156118 |
| Birth Rate (per 1,000) | 23.43 |
| Death Rate (per 1,000) | 5.81 |
| Natural Increase (%) | 1.762 |
| Infant Mortality Rate (per 1,000 births) | 52.54 |
| Total Fertility Rate | 2.7 |
| Life Expectancy at Birth for males | 67.64 |
| Life Expectancy at Birth for females | 71.3 |
| Population <15 yrs. (%) / >65 yrs. (%) (from World Population Data Sheet) | 32%/4% |
| GNP/capita (US $)
(from World Population Data Sheet) |
1,440 |
Graph 2- Age-Sex Pyramid for Bangladesh
http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idb/populationPyramid.php?BG|2010 (will not post onto wordpress for some reason)
Table 7- France’s Demographic Indicators
| Demographic Indicators | Value |
| Total midyear population | 64768389 |
| Birth Rate (per 1,000) | 12.43 |
| Death Rate (per 1,000) | 8.65 |
| Natural Increase (%) | 0.378 |
| Infant Mortality Rate (per 1,000 births) | 3.31 |
| Total Fertility Rate | 2 |
| Total Fertility Rate | 2 |
| Life Expectancy at Birth for males | 77.91 |
| Life Expectancy at Birth for females | 84.44 |
| Population <15 yrs. (%) / >65 yrs. (%) (from World Population Data Sheet) | 18%/17% |
| GNP/capita (US $)
(from World Population Data Sheet) |
34,400 |
Graph 3- Age-Sex Pyramid for France
http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idb/populationPyramid.php?FR|2010 (will not post onto wordpress for some reason)
3. Compare the demographic indicators from the two countries. What generalizations can be made concerning demographic indicators and level of development?
Comparison of the charts and demographic indicators of both countries leads one to believe that France is a more developed country than Bangladesh is. France has a much higher midyear population than Bangladesh does. The crude birth rate for Bangladesh is much lower than France’s, and it has an especially high infant mortality. High infant mortality rates usually indicates a less developed country, as it means the country is lacking in proper sanitation, nutrition, and medical knowledge (which are areas most developed countries are proficient in). The chart for Bangladesh also delineates the large age gap between youth and the elderly, which is another implication of a less developed country, while France’s does not. Moreover, for both females and males, France possesses a higher life expectancy which indicates an overall greater quality of life than Bangladesh.
References
1. Molles, M.C. (2010). Ecology. Concepts and Applications. 5th Ed. NY: McGraw-Hill.
2. Tomorrow’s World Population. Retrieved November 29th, 2010 from:http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=115×160432
3. World Population Data 2010. Retrieved November 29th, 2010 from:
(http://www.prb.org/pdf10/10wpds_eng.pd
4. U.S. Census Bureau “International Database. Retrieved November 29th, 2010 from:
http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idb/
5. Video: youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b98JmQ0Cc3k


